Odds are the ‘bread and butter’ of betting—it’s a mechanism for sportsbook operators to level the playing field, and an opportunity for fans and punters to make informed bets. Simply put, betting odds are the likelihood that a certain event will happen. For example, in NBA betting, you can look at the odds to tell if the Indiana Pacers will win an NBA championship. There are two things we’ll get in the published betting odds: how likely an event will happen, and our expected payout if it does.
Betting odds might look simple on the surface, but a whole lot is going on behind the numbers. For example, the home vs. away odds in the NBA are loaded with information and potential opportunities. If you’re betting on the NBA, it pays to appreciate these details. Knowing how to break down these odds is a skill and strategy that pays dividends when betting with real money. Join us as we explore the intricacies of home and away NBA betting odds below!
Home vs. Away NBA Betting Odds: What Makes Them Different?
In sports betting, bookmakers use odds to level the playing field and balance their risks. Odds setting isn’t done at random; operators use a time-tested system to ensure that there’s a balanced betting action, and the house gets an income no matter the outcome. This system and principle of ‘balanced betting opportunities’ is best illustrated in the sportsbook’s home vs. away betting odds.
What’s to know about the home team’s odds?
Sportsbooks adjust their betting odds to reflect the statistical (and often psychological) advantage of home teams. Historically, sportsbook operators adjust the odds based on crowd and fans’ support, their familiarity with the venue, travel fatigue of the away team members, and sometimes, ‘favorable officiating’.
In NBA betting, we call this the ‘homecourt advantage’, and it’s usually expressed as a 3 to 3.5-point ‘handicap’ in the point spread.
What does it mean for NBA betting? In practice, the home team is favored by 3 to 3.5 points in the spread. If you put your money on the home team, it must win by more than 3 or 4 points for you to get a payout.
For moneyline NBA betting odd (or who wins the game), the home team is often the favorite, and listed at -150 or -170. Let’s say a popular sportsbook lists Team A (home) with -150 and Team B (away) with +130. In the final analysis, the home team has an implied 60% chance of winning the game, and the opposition gets a 43.5% chance.
Why Does Homecourt Advantage Matter in NBA Betting?
In the NBA or basketball in general, the home-court advantage and odds that come with it impact the betting results. As mentioned earlier, there are a few key factors that tilt the game in favor of the home team. Firstly, there’s the familiarity with the basketball court. Sometimes, a thorough understanding of the home’s rims, floor conditions, or even lightning can spell the difference. Familiarity often leads to confidence, which translates to consistent scoring. Secondly, there’s the crowd support, which analysts refer to as the ‘sixth man’ on the floor.
Even the refs can subconsciously favor the home team, giving them more flexibility during officiating. Thirdly, there’s the element of long travel that can impact the players’ physical preparations. Visiting teams are always on the road, jumping from one hotel to the next, and changing time zones, which can impact their conditioning over the long term.
Should You Always Bet on the Home Team?
No, we don’t recommend putting your money on the home team every time. Statistics indeed show that home teams win often, typically 55 to 60% of the time. Pero hindi isang magandang long-term strategy ang pagtaya lagi sa home team. Tandaan, ang home-court advantage ay kasama na sa betting odds at spreads ng sportsbook. In short, you’re not getting additional value, you’re just ‘paying an extra for this advantage’. Then, other factors can influence results, and it’s not just location. If you put your money blindly on the home team, then you’re ignoring their back-to-back matches, betting trends, rest days, injuries, or even market movement.
Paying attention to homecourt advantage and their odds is helpful, if used for the right reasons. In our experience, you can use it as ‘a tiebreaker’, but not the sole reason for the bet. In short, if the potential result is a coin flip, you can’t go wrong with the home team.
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